War Handwavium

President Obama has set a firm timeline for withdrawing troops from Iraq.  “Let me say this as plainly as I can: By August 31, 2010, our combat mission in Iraq will end,”

Now, for some minor details: First of all, this withdrawal will leave 35,000 to 50,000 US troops stationed in Iraq for at least a year and a half after that. That puts the full withdrawal of US troops at the end of 2011. That isn’t a military date, it’s a political date, set by an agreement between Iraq and George W. Bush.

This gives Obama about 18 months to withdraw 100,000 US troops. Except he won’t be withdrawing them over that 18 month period. The timeline essentially has troop levels remain essentially constant for the rest of 2009. This claimed to be so that US troops could provide security for Iraq’s elections in late 2009. The problem is this means this announcement is little more that lip service for the next year. And if 2009 draws to a close and someone decides we need to stay ‘just a little longer’, then nothing actually changes.

I’m fairly certain we will have most troops out by the end of 2011. I don’t think Iraq will change their agreement that we leave by that time, unless we dump a very large bag of money in some people’s laps (which isn’t outside the realm of possibilities).

The one good thing is that August 2010 is just before election time for the US. Which means that if Obama does stretch out the timeline beyond what he promised, it might negatively affect congressional races, and Obama can use every democrat in office that he can get.

And a “contingent” of 50,000 troops is hardly a minor force. It is a major obligation and committment. Obama campaigned on getting the US out of Iraq in 16 months. He’s now committed to getting some troops out withing 19 months, but 50,000 will remain for a total of 34 months.

Whether he intends to exercise this or not, Obama certainly seems to have hedged his bets on Iraq such that extending the US presence well beyond his first term wouldn’t be out of the realm of possiibilities.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090227/ap_on_go_pr_wh/obama_iraq