War Handwavium

Pakistan’s conventional military numbers around 500,000 troops.

The Taliban numbers around 20,000 fighters.

Normally, the Taliban fight with guerrilla war tactics. Pakistan’s military uses counter-insurgency tactics. But for the Taliban to actually take control of Pakistan’s capital, Islamabad, they would have to switch from guerilla tactics to state-warfare tactics. They would have to switch from attacking from hidden positions and sneaking away immediately to the kind of land warfare that allows an army to invade, conquer, and occupy a city of 300 square miles with a population of a million.

A guerrilla force of 20,000 can harass an army of 500,000, inflict damage, and cause the army to over-react, kill civilians, and lose local support. But a guerrilla force of 20,000 can not engage in a land war against 500,000 and survive.

So stop with the “Pakistan is about to fall to the Taliban” headlines already.

http://www.thenational.ae/article/20090508/REVIEW/705079996/1008