War Handwavium

WARNING: IMAGES OF GRAPHIC VIOLENCE

Neda Agha Soltan, an Iranian student protesting the presidential elections with her father, was shot by a basij member (a paramilitary group loyal to the Iranian government) from a rooftop. She bled to death almost immediately. People nearby captured the moments after the shot on cell cameras. The video has been uploaded to youtube and has been shown on CNN and other media. (Her name has been reported in some places as Neda Soltani)

Neda means “voice” in Persian and “Neda” has become the rallying cry for some Iranian protesters.

The shot appears to have been from a rifle (the bullet went through her and splattered blood behind where she was standing) and the bullet appears to hit her high, centered, in her chest, probably hitting her heart. Within seconds, blood is coming out of her mouth and nose, covering her face. The start of the longer video shows Neda stepping backwards as she slumps to the ground. If she took a couple steps back after being shot, then the blood splatter on the ground would be consistent with the shooter being on a roof or other position above her.

This video shows Neda just after being shot. She is seen falling to the ground.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZERJTB3Go8s

This is another video, taken from a different angle and shorter duration.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RkJ274UIYv0

Wikipedia has an article here:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neda_Soltani

It seems like the Supreme Leader of Iran is quickly losing his options. On one extreme: he resorts to massive and violent crackdowns and resorts to tyranny to keep the political oppostion in line for the next decade or so. At another end, Iran undergoes another revolution. Not only is Mousavi put in as president, but the Supreme Leader is ousted, and possibly the Iranian constitution is rewritten or thrown out completely.

A peaceful solution is quickly being eliminated as an option. How can the Iranian people make peace with the Supreme Leader who commanded the Iranian military and police to kill people like Neda? Things are either going to get ugly and Mousavi will take power, or the Supreme Leader maintains power and there is going to be a complete blackout and we’ll never know what really happened in Iran in 2009.