War Handwavium

There’s a good article over at Al Jazeera.

A number of developments have possibly put some stress on the Iranian government and how it can respond to Mousavi’s supporters who are protesting the presidential elections.

The sheer size of the protests may cause some military commanders to refuse to use lethal force against the protesters. And some members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) are sympathetic to Mousavi’s plans to reform Iran. During the 1979 Iranian Revolution, when the Shah was overthrown the army refused to kill members of the revolution. That may (or may not) play out again now.

The Basij militia (about 350,000 strong) are basically Iranians who get some military training and support the army and the police in using force. But they are probably the least trained of Iran’s forces. This could cause Basij members to go either way: they might break ranks to support the protesters, or some of them might take matters in to their own hands in their own vigilante attempt to keep the theocracy in power.

The biggest fracture might be occuring in the senior clerics in Iran itself. The Supreme Ruler of Iran, Ayatollah Khamenei, is put into power by the Assembly of Experts, a group of Islamic clerics. And some of these clerics do not see Khamenei’s actions as being in line with Islam and some see Khamenei’s actions inciting the protesters to the point that the theocracy itself is threatened. Both would have incentive to remove Khamenei, rather than have the protesters tear down the theocracy that gives the clerics their political power.

This doesn’t mean they these clerics will support the idea of radically altering the theocracy to appease the protesters. But it means that they might withdraw their support of the Khamenei and install an new Supreme Leader who will then support a new presidential election.

Iran’s population is 70 million. According to the Iranian government, about 15 million people voted for Mousavi. According to many of Mousavi’s supporters, far more voted for Mousavi, but their votes were suppressed and not counted. This is a large enough number of people that if the Iranian government loses its legitimacy in the eyes of these people, then the entire theocracy is threatened.

At the moment, the options appear to be limited to very radical paths:

(1) Massive violent crackdown that puts an end to protests. (with the dangerous possibility of creating a massive backlash against the government)

(2) Complete overthrow of the Iranian government (and all those currently in power will not want to surrender their power)

The only tactical maneuvar I can see that might diffuse this enough is if the Assembly of Experts puts in a new Supreme Ruler who calls for new elections. This way, the majority of th Iranian government gets to stay in power. But the protesters might be sufficiently satisfied that they will stop protesting the government.

The only problem with that is, there have been only two Supreme Rulers. The first, Grand Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, was made Supreme Leader after the Iranian Revolution in 1979. He remained in that position until his death in 1989, at which point he was replaced by Grand Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who is the current Supreme Leader.

Installing a new Supreme Leader while the current Supreme Leader is still alive might bring into question the fallibility of the Supreme Leader and the fallibility of the Assembly of Experts and the fallibility of the Islamic Theocracy of Iran.

http://english.aljazeera.net/focus/iranincrisis/2009/06/200962355233501334.html