War Handwavium

Afghanistan will hold a new election between the incumbent president Hamid Karzai and Abdullah Abdullah.

An investigation into election fraud threw out enough ballots that Karzai’s share of the votes dropped below 50%.

One of the reasons Afghan people don’t support the central government is because they view it as corrupt. If the new election occurs without the taint of fraud, that might help the central government expand its influence beyond the capital city.

One problem, though, is that winter is coming to Afghanistan and that won’t make it easy for people to vote.

Another problem is that the Taliban has been targeting voters and may target more voters. Given the first vote was tainted with fraud, many Afghan civilians may decide that the whole thing is crooked and decide it isn’t worth risking their lives to vote.

Put simply, the US needs to make sure this election is honest if America wants to see a stable central government in Afghanistan anytime soon.

http://english.aljazeera.net/news/asia/2009/10/200910201225598138.html